Sudans hungry for a war neither can digest

Sudan and South Sudan are drawing themselves into a war that both can’t afford and both don’t really want.
By Koert Lindijer, Nairobi
Misguided nationalism in the north and hawks in the military and the governing NCP party are pushing for all-out war. Meanwhile, in the South Sudanese capital, the governing SPLM party misjudged the international community when the army occupied the disputed area of Heglig. The UN, the US and the EU strongly condemned the invasion, which was pushed by the radicals in Juba's leadership.
Peppy Bashir
Sudan’s President Bashir, in particular, is good at pepping up support in difficult times. There is little doubt his regime is still in power since the coup 22 years ago because of the country’s well-developed security services.
Spies for the NCP are everywhere – in neighbourhoods, schools and universities. But there has been some spontaneous support for the President since the crisis broke out with South Sudan. After his troops entered Heglig, he danced on stage, waving his stick. Through bombastic language he warned that anybody raising their hand in an attack against Sudan would have his it cut off. Bashir calls the SPLM leaders “insects”. This rhetoric works – at least for the short term.
Kiir, the fighter
His counterpart to the south, Salva Kiir, does not have to stir up nationalistic feelings. Several months after South Sudan gained independence, its population is still in the same stubborn mood that sustained it throughout 50 years of struggle.
Since the British left in 1956, all Sudan’s wars have revolved around the country’s identity. The South Sudanese fought against “the Arabs in the north” – the jalabas, those in the long white cloths – and the hatred they harbour for their former oppressors is easily aroused.
Kiir is a much more composed man than Bashir. Yet he is a stubborn guerrilla fighter all the same, a man who has advocated peace with Sudan, but is also ready for a major fight. “We have been bombed, maimed, enslaved,” he reminded his people on Independence Day in case they had forgotten about the half-century. South Sudan is ready for war, is his message.
Oil, oil, oil
In a bit of a suicidal move, this past January, Kiir’s government switched off the oil taps. South Sudan depends on oil for 98 percent of its income. In two months, his government will run out of funds to pay salaries.
By contrast, Sudan depends on oil for only about half its income. But the country has plunged into a very serious economic crisis since the separation last July. The IMF predicts a shrink in the economy of maybe 7 percent this year.
There is a shortage of consumer goods, inflation is high and unrest is always on the horizon. Following food riots, Sudan recently saw regime changes. With the Arab spring blowing some fresh air southwards, the population is restless. In that sense, Bashir’s position is more endangered than that of Kiir.
Border blues
Conflicts about border are among the most difficult to solve, as Indians and Pakistani and Eritreans and Ethiopians can confirm. A war can only make them worse. At the moment, that lesson from history seems lost on the two Sudanese leaders.[related-articles]