Somalia most at risk of terrorist attack says Maplecroft

A recent survey carried out by global analysts Maplecroft in London, suggests that Somalia is most susceptible to a terrorist attack, followed by Pakistan, Iraq, Afghanistan and the new nation of South Sudan. The company’s Terrorism Risk Index also identified threats in Yemen, Iran, Uganda, Libya, Egypt and Nigeria.

A Maplecroft statement said increased dangers seen in Uganda were caused by al Qaeda-associated violence. Nigeria is beset by militant raids in the Niger Delta, by sectarian violence and by radical Islamist attacks in the north.

South Sudan
The top four rankings were unchanged from Maplecroft's previous survey issued in November 2010 but South Sudan, which came into being last month on secession for the north, replaced the Palestinian Territories at number five due to the high average number of people killed per attack in violence there.

The UK-based company's index rates 198 countries on the number, frequency and intensity of terrorism attacks, plus the likelihood of mass casualties occurring. While based on historical data, it is intended as a forward-looking assessment.

It defines terrorism as the calculated and purposeful use of violence employed to influence the attitudes and behaviour of people and governments, and takes its raw data from the U.S. National Counter-terrorism Center's Worldwide Incidents Tracking System.

Extreme risk
Maplecroft considers 20 states to be at "extreme risk". Apart from the top five, these are Yemen 6, Palestinian Territories 7, Democratic Republic of Congo 8, Central African Republic 9, Colombia 10, Algeria 11, Thailand 12, Philippines 13, Russia 14, Sudan, 15, Iran 16, Burundi 17, India 18, Nigeria 19 and Israel 20.

In Somalia, Maplecroft said that despite suffering some losses in Mogadishu, the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab continued to hold much of south and central Somalia and "launch some of the most devastating attacks in the capital" in its fight against a Western-backed interim government.

South Sudan was given its rating "primarily due to the intensity of terrorist attacks, with an average of 6.59 fatalities per terrorist incident, almost three times that of Somalia at 2.23."

At least seven rebel militias are fighting the new government's forces which are trying to establish stability after winning separation as part of the climax to a 2005 peace deal ending decades of civil war with Khartoum.

Source: Reuters
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